AFC Bournemouth are the statistical favourites to win the Europa League this season. Opta's supercomputer gives the Cherries a 14.3% chance of winning the competition in their debut European campaign.
The prediction, based on 10,000 simulations, places Bournemouth ahead of Portuguese giants Benfica, who have a 14% chance. German side Bayer Leverkusen are third favourites at 10.2%, with Union Saint-Gilloise and Sunderland completing the top five.
Justin Kluivert, who scored in the recent 2-2 draw with Brentford, said the club's first European game will be a "beautiful experience".
Strong European prospects
Beyond the overall win probability, the data paints a promising picture for Bournemouth's European run. The supercomputer suggests they are the most likely team to finish top of the new league phase, doing so in 15.1% of simulations. Their chances of progressing are high, with a 90% probability of reaching the last 16, a 62.6% chance of making the quarter-finals, a 40.4% chance of reaching the semi-finals, and a 25.1% chance of getting to the final in Frankfurt.
This European optimism comes as the team prepares for a demanding domestic schedule. Bournemouth currently sit 15th in the Premier League with three points from four games, and their next fixture is a home match against Liverpool on Sunday.
Former manager Harry Redknapp highlighted the significance of the week ahead, saying, "Real Sociedad and Liverpool, what a big week for Bournemouth." The club has already unveiled a special Europa League kit to mark the historic adventure. Marcus Tavernier, the team's top scorer this season with three goals, will be a key figure as the campaign unfolds. The Europa League group stage begins on Wednesday night.
The report in full is at Bournemouth Echo
Bournemouth began their Europa League campaign with a 2-1 win at Real Sociedad on September 17. Justin Kluivert and Rayan scored first-half goals, with Sergio Gómez replying for the hosts. Manager Marco Rose watched his team justify their pre-match favourites tag with a professional display on the road. The victory extends the Cherries' unbeaten run to five matches across all competitions, with their recent form now reading two wins and three draws.
